Everything Has A Limit

Poker, economics, and personal crises, a three-for-one deal

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I could see the cash-in-and-leg-it option becoming viable for me in a minimum 5 years, continuing employment permitting. Seven is easier - both kids done with school by then. Crikey - I'm thinking about the kids finishing school - doesn't seem that long ago I didn't have kids.

On the property front it was ever thus. The cash-in and leg-it option was one we took 25 years ago, converting shitty terrace for 4-bed detachedness on lower incomes. I can see Steph following down the same road of suffering London for a finite period and then getting out to a civilised part of the country.

I remain wedded to a slow process of converting savings into high-yield equities which is generating sluggish capital growth (haven't seen many shares duller than Vodafone) but 5-6% yields. I don't see there being any great economic recovery in the next 3-5 years. Just a laggy 1% growth, very low interest rates and stable house prices for the same period.

Hi Geoff : I think that the gap has widened quite a bit in the past four or five years, and the only question is whether that increased gap will regress to the "old" gap, or whether it is a permanent shift.

Another difference this time round is that it has been far more central London-centric. The older shift was more generally dispersed throughout the more employed and better paid South-east. The newer shift has been based on foreign cash buying top-flight central London properties and the rest benefiting from a trickle-down effect.

Vodafone has been a stock of mine for some time as well (I bought it when it stopped being capital growth and started paying good divis)! I think that they did a special dividend about five years ago, and that's about the most exciting thing that has happened to it. Up to about 24 stocks now, I think. Sold half my William Hill (up nearly 100% in a couple of years) and put that plus some dividend cash into Land Securities. Also put in money for the Direct Line float, which has also done ok.

I have to agree that we'll be in for a semi-Japan situation (with stagflation rather than deflation) for five years. I really can't see interest rates going up during that period (famous last words, of course) because to do so would bring about a depression to end all depresions. What government would do that voluntarily?

I've ordered a sale of my 100% index-linked allocation in my Informa pension fund, BTW. I think ILs are fully priced now. Will tell you where my money has gone when the deal is made. Perhaps you can guess?


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