2008 Poker Round Up
First, the hard figures:

SITE	BONUS	$50	$100	FREEROLL	$200	RAKEBACK	$400	$5 HU	$10 HU	$20 HU	Grand Total
PTY	$974	$950	$147	---	-$336	$280	---	---	---	---	$2,013
FTP	$640	-$142	---	$26	---	---	---	---	---	---	$525
NO_IQ	$94	-$231	-$170	---	-$84	$1,063	---	$6	$8	-$37	$649
BetFred	$1,805	$17	$1,506	$112	$873	---	$7	---	---	---	$4,319
Stars	$360	$43	-$145	---	$169	---	---	---	---	---	$428
Pacific	$157	$221	$7,315	---	$234	$466	$351	---	---	---	$8,743
Grand Total	$4,030	$857	$8,652	$138	$856	$1,809	$358	$6	$8	-$37	$16,677
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Hours Played

SITE	BONUS	$50	$100	FREEROLL	$200	RAKEBACK	$400	$5	$10	$20	Grand Total
PTY	0	81	139	---	12	1	---	---	---	---	233
FTP	0	7	---	1	---	---	---	---	---	---	8
NO_IQ	0	36	112	---	40	0	---	0	3	1	192
BetFred	0	28	155	3	22	---	0	---	---	---	209
Stars	0	33	70	---	3	---	---	---	---	---	106
Pacific	0	26	219	---	8	0	1	---	---	---	254
Grand Total	0	210	695	4	85	1	2	0	3	1	1,002
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Hands Played

SITE	BONUS	$50	$100	FREEROLL	$200	RAKEBACK	$400	$5	$10	$20	Grand Total
PTY	0	18,372	34,657	---	2,664	0	---	---	---	---	55,693
FTP	0	2,558	---	100	---	---	---	---	---	---	2,658
NO_IQ	0	7,250	24,886	---	8,615	0	---	80	627	223	41,681
BetFred	0	5,886	34,554	300	5,381	---	5	---	---	---	46,126
Stars	0	6,649	14,740	---	622	---	---	---	---	---	22,011
Pacific	0	4,211	43,603	---	1,177	0	265	---	---	---	49,256
Grand Total	0	44,926	152,440	400	18,459	0	270	80	627	223	217,425
---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---	---

Last year I played 158,000 hands in 883 hours, so this year I've played an extra 60,000 hands (40% more) in an extra 120 hours (13% more).

Last year's hourly rate was $10.86, while the win rate per 100 hands was $6.07.
This year the hourly rate has been $16.65, with a win rate per 100 hands of $7.67.

At the start of the year I targeted a win of between $12K and $15K and a win rate of (I think) between $13 and $15. I exceeded both of those targets.

However, the devastating performance was in the last four months of the year, where I never won less than $2,000 per month and I clocked up about $10K profit at a rate of between $25 and $30 an hour.

There's little doubt that I ran well here. Although HoldEm Manager's All-In EV chart has weaknesses (the major ones being that if you get 98% of opponent's money in when he is a big underdog, but then pay him off for the final 2% when he hits his one-outer, it looks as if you made a bad call, and, of course, that it ignores non-showdown hands), it's a fair guide to how well you have been running.

I ran well on NoIQ (despite the abysmal performance) and on Pacific, while I ran badly on Party. The others were in line with expectations.






As you can see, it all kicked off from when I got back from holiday in August. After a very damp time from end-March to end-May, I decided to do a bit of rebuilding -- three-tabling at $50, not worrying about any deposit bonuses. Just focusing on winning at the tables. This did me a lot of good.

I've left off the $50 line, but it can be easily deduced from the total and the $100 line.









My standard deviation at $100NL thus far is $97 an hour with a win rate of $10.62 an hour. Rakeback and bonuses probably boost this to something like $14.50 an hour.


Lessons learnt from the year? I think that the main four have been:

1) Different sites and different levels play very differently. The more you play, the more you are in tune with how other players tend to play (the 'default" style for a site, a stake level) and you can exploit this. Playing the same way at all sites is detrimental to your earnings.

2) The conventional wisdom is often wrong.

3) Specialization is vital these days. You can't be an all-rounder any more.

4) Forget about bringing your live game to the online game or vice-versa. The games have moved further apart this year than ever. However, this is less true as you move up the levels, where single-tabling is more frequent and the player pool is smaller.

++++++++

No specific targets yet for 2009. I think that I would be happy to maintain this year's win level, which is a significant jump from earlier performances. My long-term aim remains an average 20% increase in earnings per annum, and this year's 80% jump is probably a bit of an outlier. The performance of the last four months of the year (equal to $30K a year) is unsustainable at $100 NL.

Many will expecting the games to get tougher next year, but recessions are funny things. Suddenly you get a large number of people with time on their hands and money in their pockets (see "payoffs"). Many of these will have worked in the financial sector and will have played poker socially or online at weekends (they may even be winners). Suddenly they will decide to try to make a bit of money playing more often.

And, of course, they will get slaughtered.

So, I'm not that pessimistic about the games. I think that expansion into virgin teritories and a new player base in the UK will be good news.

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